Forum:2013-14 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season
Welcome Okay, this may seem early, but the 2013-14 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone has technically began. Anyone is welcome to post predictions regarding total activity here. Here are my predictions: South-West Indian Ocean: 15-15-13-6 (DIS,D,MTS,TC) (Mirana) Australian region: 14-12-6 (TL,TC,STC) (Kate, Alu, Bakung) South Pacific: 16-15-13-6 (DIS,D,TC,STC) (Victor) P.S. We missed a freak tropical disturbance that lasted from July 8 - 9 in the SWIO? Lindsay 2.0? AndrewTalk To Me 21:43, July 31, 2013 (UTC) South-West Indian Ocean 92S.INVEST Invest 92S BWEEP beep beep BWEEP! (Yes, that's a police sound) We have a highly organized invest Southwestern Indian Ocean. Expect a renumber very soon. CobraStrike (t)(b)( ) 01:53, August 31, 2013 (UTC) : What the heck!? A storm this early? Well I don't think this will become Amara, it's a little too early in the season to see named storms. [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 02:15, August 31, 2013 (UTC) : Steven,storms can form anytime of year,even if climatologically its not favorable.Allanjeffs 04:33, August 31, 2013 (UTC) 01.NONAME Invest 95S Now this is looking better than 96P. Image I think this could develop quite shortly, actually. Fred22 (talk) 22:02, October 21, 2013 (UTC) :Now well into the SWIO, I think this could become the first storm of the season. Ryan1000 13:13, October 24, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Disturbance 1 Now a TDi and is expected to become a TD but I think there could be a small chance of it becoming a MTS Kiewii! 15:21, October 25, 2013 (UTC) : I think we will see Amara from this, although it will probably be weak. I think we need to start paying more attention to the SHem, since their season is about to officially begin soon. BTW, I changed the format of this page to look like last year, with the invests now sorted into their basins. [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 01:48, October 26, 2013 (UTC) ::I hope this disturbance becomes a moderate tropical storm. AndrewTalk To Me 02:40, October 26, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Depression 1 At 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds)/1001 mbar (hPa; 29.56 inHg), the depression has strengthened. AndrewTalk To Me 11:45, October 26, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone 01S The JTWC has now labeled this depression Tropical Cyclone 01S. RSMC La Réunion has lowered the system's pressure to 1000 mbar (hPa). AndrewTalk To Me 12:44, October 27, 2013 (UTC) : This could become a moderate TS, named Amara, but it'll die before it reaches Madagascar. Ryan1000 00:29, October 28, 2013 (UTC) Remnants of 01S Dead. Unfortunately it didn't become Amara. [[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] ''T'' | 00:15, October 30, 2013 (UTC) 97S.INVEST 97S.INVEST Another new invest is here. The SWIO is waking up... AndrewTalk To Me 12:01, November 8, 2013 (UTC) It has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 24 hours per the JTWC. AndrewTalk To Me 11:57, November 11, 2013 (UTC) 02R.AMARA Tropical Depression 02 We have a new tropical depression in the SWIO; its current intensity is at 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds)/999 mbar (hPa) per RSMC La Reunion. The JTWC has issued a TCFA on the system as well. AndrewTalk To Me 17:10, December 15, 2013 (UTC) : Might become Amara, but I don't expect it to do much. Ryan1000 01:43, December 16, 2013 (UTC) :: I also think we will see Amara from this, but I think that it will only be weak. The Southern Hemisphere has been kinda inactive for this time of year, don't you think? Well, with this system and the below invest, looks like we are getting some more activity in the south-west Indian, while the SPac and the Australian region remain quiet. —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 05:49, December 16, 2013 (UTC) Moderate Tropical Storm Amara Hello, anyone here? We now have Amara, guys! The JTWC takes it up to 60 kts.—'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 00:48, December 17, 2013 (UTC) : It's a moderate tropical storm on the SWIO scale. MFR sees this intensifying a bit more than the JTWC, possibly up to category 2 or 3 status, but remaining out to sea while doing so. Ryan1000 13:53, December 17, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Amara Category 1, forecast to be a cat 3. Ryan1000 16:56, December 18, 2013 (UTC) :Now up to a Cat. 3, and I wasn't too far off with my initial forecast. Just my timing was off... Supportstorm (talk) 21:34, December 18, 2013 (UTC) ::Well, I didn't expect Amara to get this strong. JTWC now takes it up to 130 kts. —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 02:27, December 19, 2013 (UTC) Intense Tropical Cyclone Amara Great, the format deleted my post from before. Anyways, it's an ITC now. This should be about where it peaks. Ryan1000 21:42, December 19, 2013 (UTC) :Amara is at 105 knots (120 mph) (1-minute sustained) per the JTWC and its pressure is at 960 mbar (hPa) per RSMC La Reunion. I never a expected a major from Amara whatsoever. AndrewTalk To Me 23:28, December 19, 2013 (UTC) ::Now Amara is at 115 knots (130 mph) (1-minute sustained) per the JTWC gusting to 140 knots (160 mph). RSMC La Reunion has Amara's pressure at 940 mbar (hPa; 27.76 inHg). As I said below in Bruce's section, the sexiest couple worldwide since Igor and Julia of the 2010 AHS are doing their great show west of Australia. AndrewTalk To Me 22:08, December 20, 2013 (UTC) 94S.INVEST 94S.INVEST A new invest is on the JTWC website. The agency gives the system a low chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours. AndrewTalk To Me 17:10, December 15, 2013 (UTC) : If the above invest becomes Amara, maybe this could become Bejisa. Who knows...'' —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 05:49, December 16, 2013 (UTC) :: Wait...isn't this the invest that eventually became Bruce? —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 02:29, December 19, 2013 (UTC) Australian Region 98S.INVEST 98S.INVEST Now the Australian region is at it! A new invest popped up on the JTWC website in the basin. It has a ''medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 24 hours due to good poleward outflow. AndrewTalk To Me 11:57, November 11, 2013 (UTC) 01U.ALESSIA Tropical Cyclone Alessia As the NHem shuts down, the SHem warms up. First storm of the australian region season, forecast to head eastward over Australia and pass south of Darwin as a TS. Ryan1000 20:46, November 22, 2013 (UTC) :3 more AUS storms to go until... ;) --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 21:48, November 22, 2013 (UTC) ::Yeah, here comes Cyclone Dylan! Only 3 more names until we reach your name! :D Anyway, hopefully Alessia won't be too bad for Australia. —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 01:21, November 23, 2013 (UTC) :::I wanna be a fish C5, but if I end up failing, then hey, at least I had a chance. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 02:57, November 23, 2013 (UTC) :::::Made landfall in Australia, pretty much collapsed. Doubt there was any noticeable damage. Ryan1000 14:40, November 23, 2013 (UTC) ::::::Alessia has essentially collapsed. Northern Australia could easily receive some damage, but not too much. AndrewTalk To Me 21:23, November 23, 2013 (UTC) Remnants of Alessia Buh-bye. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 05:26, November 25, 2013 (UTC) : The JTWC gives it a low chance of regeneration, but I think it's dead anyways. I don't think it was too bad for Australia. —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 01:52, November 26, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Alessia (2nd time) Steven, Alessia just proved you wrong! It has regenerated in the Gulf of Carpentaria, and it is doing very well. The BoM have Alessia's intensity at 40 knots (45 mph, 75 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds)/993 mbar (hPa) and the JTWC pinpoint the cyclone at 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h) (1-minute sustained winds) gusting to 45 knots (50 mph). However, since Alessia is about to make landfall over the Gulf Country, it likely will not get much stronger than it currently is. AndrewTalk To Me 12:38, November 27, 2013 (UTC) : Bleh. It probably won't do much. Should die soon. Ryan1000 18:03, November 27, 2013 (UTC) Remnants of Alessia (2nd time) And per both the JTWC and BoM, Alessia has made landfall over Australia and perished for good. AndrewTalk To Me 21:44, November 27, 2013 (UTC) Meh. It looked like it was shoving my words down my throat this morning, but now it falls flat on its face not long after. Goodbye, my darling Alessia! I don't think you were too bad for Australia. —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 22:50, November 27, 2013 (UTC) :Uhh, Alessia is still not dead yet. Per the JTWC, convection has flared up near what was her LLCC (low level circulation center), and she just moved back over water where low vertical wind shear is currently hovering about. Alessia has a medium chance of reregeneration in the next 24 hours. AndrewTalk To Me 13:43, November 29, 2013 (UTC) ::Alessia seems immortal. When will you ever die, you little storm?! —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 19:29, November 29, 2013 (UTC) :::It is no longer as likely that Alessia will come back once more. Her low level signature has weakened, and she is entering a region of moderate vertical wind shear. Consequently, the JTWC has downgraded Alessia's chances of becoming tropical to low for the next 24 hours. AndrewTalk To Me 13:25, November 30, 2013 (UTC) ::::And now, Alessia has really perished per the JTWC. AndrewTalk To Me 21:43, December 1, 2013 (UTC) 02U.BRUCE Tropical Cyclone Bruce And the 2nd Australian Region storm is here. Forecast to be a cat 1 as it moves out to sea. Ryan1000 16:56, December 18, 2013 (UTC) :60 kts (1-min) per JTWC, forecast to peak at 90 kts (1-min). Currently forecast to traverse hemispheres while moving north-northwestward at over 130 mph over the course of Saturday and land in India by early Sunday. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 02:06, December 19, 2013 (UTC) ::There must be a BIG error in that forecast map, since that forecast is absolutely IMPOSSIBLE for tropical cyclones to do! :O Here's the real forecast! —'[[User:Steven09876 |'Steven09876']] Talk • ' 02:24, December 19, 2013 (UTC) ::::Yeah Dylan, there's a glitch in the WUnderground forecast track there, it's really forecast to become a cat 2 on the SSHS while heading out to sea. Ryan1000 13:27, December 19, 2013 (UTC) Severe Tropical Cyclone Bruce Now a severe TC by the Australian scale, and it crossed into the SWIO. Ryan1000 21:42, December 19, 2013 (UTC) :Bruce is expected to reach 115 knots (130 mph) (1-minute sustained) with gusts of 140 knots (160 mph) per the JTWC. It looks like the SWIO is about to get its second major-hurricane strength storm. AndrewTalk To Me 23:30, December 19, 2013 (UTC) Intense Tropical Cyclone Bruce Now an ITC by MFR's scale. A little stronger than Amara, with 125 mph winds (10 min sustained) and 935 mbars. Ryan1000 13:52, December 20, 2013 (UTC) Very Intense Tropical Cyclone Bruce For the first time since Cyclone Edzani in 2010, a very intense tropical cyclone has formed in the SWIO basin. This breathtaking monster is at 120 knots (140 mph, 220 km/h) (10-minute sustained winds)/915 mbar (hPa; 27.02 inHg) per RSMC La Reunion. Per the JTWC, Bruce is at 125 knots (145 mph, 235 km/h) (1-minute sustained winds) with gusts of up to 150 knots (175 mph). The JTWC expects a peak intensity of 130 knots (150 mph) (1-minute sustained winds) with gusts of 160 knots (185 mph). For the record, Bruce is the strongest SWIO cyclone since Edzani, and its Category 4 coexistence with Amara makes this the first Category 4 duet worldwide since, I believe, Igor and Julia of the 2010 AHS. AndrewTalk To Me 22:04, December 20, 2013 (UTC) South Pacific Basin 02F.NONAME Invest 93P Well, well, well. Look what we have HERE TCFA issued, get excited! Ten-o-four and falling with 25 to 30 knots. This doesn't look that ''organized but TCFA, so I'll go with it. Fred22 (talk) 22:02, October 21, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Depression 02F I wouldn't get too excited as the TCFA has been cancelled. I'm not actually too sure that this is 02F? Anyway, if it is, it has a low chance of becoming a TS by Nadi 'Kiewii! 17:25, October 22, 2013 (UTC) Remnants of 02F Gone... 03F.NONAME Invest 96P Mmmm, not so much. Looks pretty...uhh...not good. -Proximity to 93P -Just no Fred22 (talk) 22:02, October 21, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Depression 03F Now TD 03F, very low chance of it becoming a TC and current satellite images show that it doesn't have that much convection '''Kiewii! 17:30, October 22, 2013 (UTC) Remnants of 03F Gone... Kiewii! 15:58, October 23, 2013 (UTC) Tropical Depression 03F (2nd time) Back again... Kiewii! 15:24, October 25, 2013 (UTC) It got renumbered (see below). AndrewTalk To Me 11:45, October 26, 2013 (UTC) 04F.NONAME Tropical Depression 04F With a pressure of 1007 mbar (hPa), a new tropical depression has come. AndrewTalk To Me 02:40, October 26, 2013 (UTC) Remnants of 04F It degenerated. AndrewTalk To Me 12:44, October 27, 2013 (UTC)